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PART ONE: THE LESSON 

The Lesson 

第一编 主旨
第1章 关于这堂课

Economics is haunted by more fallacies than any other study known to man. This is no accident. The inherent difficulties of the subject would be great enough in any case, but they are multiplied a thousandfold by a factor that is insignificant in, say, physics, mathematics or medicine-the special pleading of selfish interests. While every group has certain economic interests identical with those of all groups, every group has also, as we shall see, interests antagonistic to those of all other groups. While certain public policies would in the long run benefit everybody, other policies would benefit one group only at the expense of all other groups. The group that would benefit by such policies, having such a direct interest in them, will argue for them plausibly and persistently. It will hire the best buyable minds to devote their whole time to presenting its case. And it will finally either convince the general public that its case is sound, or so befuddle it that clear thinking on the subject becomes next to impossible.

在人类所知领域中，经济学总是被更多的谬误所困扰。这决非出于偶然。这门学科内在的难度原本就高，再加上人类好为追求私利掩饰辩护，对于物理学、数学、医学等其他学科而言，这种倾向无关紧要，但在经济学就把问题无数倍地复杂化了。我们将在本书中看到，尽管每个群体都有某些经济利益和所有群体的完全一致，但各自又都存在着与其他不同群体的利益相抵触的利益关系。尽管有一些公共政策从长远来看对所有人都有利，但其它的政策却是以牺牲其他群体的利益为代价来维护某些群体的利益。能够从那些政策直接获利的群体，会在利益的驱使下不遗余力地主张积极实施相关政策。他们会雇来花钱所能雇到的最好的专家来全力宣扬有利于他们的学说。这样做的结果，要不会让大众信以为真，也会让大众稀里糊涂，以至于接下来对经济科学几乎再也无法做清晰地思考。

In addition to these endless pleadings of self-interest, there is a second main factor that spawns new economic fallacies every day. This is the persistent tendency of men to see only the immediate effects of a given policy, or its effects only on a special group, and to neglect to inquire what the long-run effects of that policy will be not only on that special group but on all groups. It is the fallacy of overlooking secondary consequences.

除去这些无休无止对私人利益的辩护，还有另一个重要因素导致新的经济学谬误每天都在产生。那就是：人们有着天生短视的倾向，总是只关注某项政策的即时影响，或者只关注政策对某个特殊群体产生的影响，而不去探究那项政策对所有群体造成的长远影响。这本身就是忽略种种续发后果的谬误。

In this lies the whole difference between good economics and bad. The bad economist sees only what immediately strikes the eye; the good economist also looks beyond. The bad economist sees only the direct consequences of a proposed course; the good economist looks also at the longer and indirect consequences. The bad economist sees only what the effect of a given policy has been or will be on one particular group; the good economist inquires also what the effect of the policy will be on all groups.

好经济学与坏经济学之间的全部区别就在于此。坏经济学家只顾及眼前所见的利弊得失，而好经济学家则看得更远；坏经济学家只观察经济政策提案中的行动产生的直接结果，好经济学家还会考察更长远的间接结果；坏经济学家只关注某项政策对某个特殊群体已经产生或者即将产生的影响，好经济学家还会去探究该政策对所有群体产生的影响。

The distinction may seem obvious. The precaution of looking for all the consequences of a given policy to everyone may seem elementary. Doesn’t everybody know, in his personal life, that there are all sorts of indulgences delightful at the moment but disastrous in the end? Doesn’t every little boy know that if he eats enough candy he will get sick? Doesn’t the fellow who gets drunk know that he will wake up next morning with a ghastly stomach and a horrible head? Doesn’t the dipsomaniac know that he is ruining his liver and shortening his life? Doesn’t the Don Juan know that he is letting himself in for every sort of risk, from blackmail to disease? Finally, to bring it to the economic though still personal realm, do not the idler and the spendthrift know, even in the midst of their glorious fling, that they are heading for a future of debt and poverty?

两者的区别似乎显而易见，尽可能地探讨某项政策对每个人可能产生的所有影响，似乎应该是起码的常识。难道大家不知道，居家过日子的时候，贪图一时的纵欲享受往往会招致不幸的后果吗？每个小孩不都知道糖吃得太多会恶心不舒服吗？喝醉酒的人不都知道次日晨起之后必定胃灼头痛吗？酗酒成瘾的人不都知道狂饮烂醉会损肝折寿吗？风流成性的人不都知道纵欲贪欢劳命伤财，还容易患上性病吗？回头看看个人生活中的经济问题，游手好闲的懒汉和尽情挥霍的败家子在放纵自己时，不也知道他们是在走向负债与贫困吗？

Yet when we enter the field of public economics, these elementary truths are ignored. There are men regarded today as brilliant economists, who deprecate saving and recommend squandering on a national scale as the way of economic salvation; and when anyone points to what the consequences of these policies will be in the long run, they reply flippantly, as might the prodigal son of a warning father: “In the long run we are all dead.” And such shallow wisecracks pass as devastating epigrams and the ripest wisdom.

然而，当我们踏进公共经济学的领域时，这些起码的常识却往往被人忘得一干二净。有些被认为是当今杰出经济学家的人抨击储蓄，他们把全国性的铺张浪费推崇为拯救经济的途径。当有人质疑这些政策的长期后果究竟会如何时，他们却像败家子对待严父的告诫，俏皮地答道：“何必看得那么远呢？要知道从长远来看，我们都是要死的。”此种戏言，却被人当作至理名言和最成熟的智慧而流传下来。

But the tragedy is that, on the contrary, we are already suffering the long-run consequences of the policies of the remote or recent past. Today is already the tomorrow which the bad economist yesterday urged us to ignore. The long-run consequences of some economic policies may become evident in a few months. Others may not become evident for several years. Still others may not become evident for decades. But in every case those long-run consequences are contained in the policy as surely as the hen was in the egg, the flower in the seed.

相反很不幸的是，我们已经在承受或远或近的过去实施的政策所带来的长期影响了。坏经济学家昨天要我们置之不理的明天，转眼就成了今天。有些经济政策的长期影响，可能不出几个月就会露出弊端；有些政策产生的后果，也许需要好几年之后才会显现；还有些政策，其后遗症甚至要潜伏数十年才会爆发。这些长远影响蕴含在这些政策之中，这是确定无疑的，就像小鸡孕育于鸡蛋之中，花朵孕育于种子之中一样。

From this aspect, therefore, the whole of economics can be reduced to a single lesson, and that lesson can be reduced to a single sentence. The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.

因此，从这个角度来看，整个经济学的研究可以简化为一堂课，这堂课又可以归纳成一句话：经济学的艺术，在于不仅要观察任何法案或政策的即期效果，更要考察比较长远的影响；不仅要关注政策给某一群体带来的后果，更要追踪给所有群体造成的后果。

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